In the grand scheme of things, we are only talking about the early eighties. No mobile phone, no real internet penetration, and the entire concept of multi-channel television was at an embryonic stage in the West.
Fast forward twenty years and here we are in the Middle East, generally considered late in catching up with the rest of the world when it comes to TV and technology, and the industry is talking about Digital Video Recorders, Video on Demand, and HD. I believe the change over the next decade will be even more significant than what has taken place in the past ten years, since pay-TV started to take off in the Middle East.
Since Showtime was set up in 1996, there has been an explosive proliferation of channels, both free to air and pay, providing a tectonic change in the amount of choice consumers have. It is a scenario unmatched anywhere else and one that leaves industry experts, analysts, rights owners, distributors and onlookers alike all trying hard to make sense of a set up that in strict financial terms does not currently make sense.
The non-subscription channels are dependent on advertising revenue for survival. As we look forward to the introduction of independent audience measurement in the near future, there will be greater pressure on them to deliver a healthy return on advertisers’ investment and channels will become far more accountable than they have ever been. Once ratings exist, all players will want to be in the ratings game and in order to even be considered, this will require raising the bar on creativity and appropriate, innovative marketing to secure a healthy share of viewers.
Technology will play an important role in raising the bar, as I anticipate that any channels that are not in HD in the next few years will look inferior and find it much more difficult to command viewer attention. Television channels across the board will no longer only be competing with other television channels but with other content delivery methods, such as mobile and broadband, where audience engagement will again play an increasingly important role.
From what Showtime experienced with the launch of Showbox, DVR will catch on very quickly across the region. As a technology, it is very easy to use – much easier than a VCR. It affects people’s viewing habits and puts them firmly in control of what time and which day they watch their favorite programs. It is a must-have product from the day you experience it.
DVR is paving the way for what I call “demand TV,” which will become the norm very quickly. There will always be some passive viewers but with new, more advanced technology, it will become far easier to create your own viewing experience through a menu of options that can filter data in any number of ways – whether it is by genre, actor, channel, rating or otherwise. Ultimately, the consumer will choose in an even more sophisticated way than today.
I see our region becoming a showcase example for convergence in the very near future. It has been talked about for a long time elsewhere in the world with very limited implementation. We may not be great innovators, but we will learn from the mistakes of others and implement a true success better and more quickly than anywhere else.
Watch this space!

Peter Einstein was president and CEO of Showtime Arabia from 1997-2006. He is now a private investor and advisor for new media, communications and production companies primarily focused in the Middle East and North Africa.